University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell to 48.1 in September
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The Facts
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August.
- September’s final sentiment reading was a four-month low.
- The final September reading of 48.1 exceeded the preliminary estimate of 47.8.
- Consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0% in August.
- Views of current and year-ahead personal finances weakened by about 10% in September.
- The University of Michigan said economic outlooks weakened across political groups.
- The consumer expectations index fell to 46.3 in September from 51.5 in August.
Context
What does the consumer sentiment index measure?
The University of Michigan measure uses consumers’ views of personal finances and the broader economy; it is used to gauge future spending, which represents much U.S. economic activity. Hill
Why did consumers’ outlook weaken?
The survey cited concerns about high prices, while its director said consumers also worried that higher fuel prices and renewed trade disputes could affect the broader economy. U.S. News & World R…,finanzen.ch,Mirage News
Did any part of the survey improve?
Buying conditions for durable goods improved somewhat because some consumers believed purchasing sooner could help them avoid higher prices later. U.S. News & World R…,Bolsamania,International Busin…
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Sentiment fell to a four-month low with inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% and weakened outlooks across political groups, showing this isn't partisan noise but a shared, measurable squeeze.
- Where Left and Right split
- Households absorbing real cost increases and whose finances bear the burden, or eroding public trust that policymakers have inflation under control.
- Why they won’t converge
- The divide is about trust in institutions: whether the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike is treated as evidence policymakers are already responding to inflation expectations, or as confirmation the problem has outrun their control.
How left and right read it
When people report their own household finances getting worse, that is evidence about costs, not a mood to be argued away. Views of current and year-ahead finances weakened by roughly 10 percent, one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6 percent, and the expectations index slid to 46.3 — and it happened across political groups, so this is not partisan sulking but a price squeeze people are living. The question is simple. Whose costs get cut first?
“Shopper attitudes soured as a monthlong bout of inflation squeezed consumers and an underlying oil supply shock showed little sign of imminent resolution.” — ABC News
Confidence is not just a mood metric - it reflects whether households trust inflation is under control, and that trust is breaking. The index sank to a four-month low, the expectations gauge fell further, and one-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%, with weakened outlooks spanning political groups. That should press policymakers to treat rising price expectations as the threat to confidence they are, not a data blip to wait out.
“The revival of inflation pressures due to the war with Iran has taken a heavy toll on consumer sentiment, pushing it toward historic lows.” — Breitbart
The receipts — all 43 sources
Wire services (4)
Independent coverage (39)
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