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WMO says El Niño is expected to strengthen to a strong event between July and September

First covered Thursday, July 2, 2026Science & ClimateWell-covered

The Facts

  • The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific.
  • WMO forecasts El Niño will strengthen rapidly into a strong event between July and September 2026.
  • WMO said the forecast is supported by strong agreement among leading climate-model forecasts, giving the agency high confidence in the outlook.
  • According to WMO, the strengthening El Niño increases the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world.
  • Several reports citing the WMO update say seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies in key central and eastern equatorial Pacific monitoring regions are expected to exceed 2°C.
  • The WMO update also points to above-average temperatures across most inhabited areas of the world as El Niño strengthens.
  • El Niño is a natural climate pattern linked to warmer waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that can alter global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns, which is why the forecast has implications far beyond the Pacific region.
  • WMO said it is urging countries to prepare for the expected impacts, indicating that preparedness and early warning are the immediate next steps as the event develops.

Context

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal, affecting wind, air-pressure and rainfall patterns around the world IndexHR,LaVanguardia,El Tiempo.

What does the WMO forecast say will happen next?

The WMO says El Niño is already present and is expected to intensify quickly into a strong event between July and September 2026, with forecast models showing high agreement Hindustan Times,Franceinfo,El Tiempo.

Why does this matter outside the Pacific?

Because El Niño can shift global weather patterns, the WMO says a stronger event raises the chances of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rain and other extremes in many regions, and it also expects above-average temperatures across much of the inhabited world SAPO,infobae,EL MUNDO.

Where Left and Right agree, and where they split

Where Left and Right agree
A high-confidence WMO forecast of a strengthening El Niño makes broader extreme-weather risks credible enough that countries should prepare and strengthen early warning now.
Where Left and Right split
A public obligation to protect people from escalating climate risks, or prudent governance responding calmly to a natural global pattern.

How left and right read it

Left says

The important fact here is not just that El Niño has developed, but that the World Meteorological Organization says it is likely to strengthen rapidly into a strong event and has high confidence in that outlook. When a trusted public institution is warning of a higher likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather across much of the world, preparedness and early warning become a real public obligation.

Right says

What matters here is that a natural climate pattern with global reach is developing, and the forecast carries high confidence because leading models strongly agree. When the warning is this clear and the likely effects include heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and above-average temperatures across most inhabited areas, serious preparation is simply prudent governance rather than panic.

See this differently than someone you know would?

The receipts — 143 sources

Wire services (6)

APSAPOONU estima intensificação do El Niño nos próximos meses e al...
APRapplerStrong El Niño will develop rapidly over coming months, says...
APSAPOONU alerta para intensificação rápida das condições do El Ni...
APSAPOONU prevê intensificação rápida das condições do El Niño nos...
APMediapartLe phénomène climatique El Niño en cours devrait être de " f...
APMediapartPérou: " danger imminent " de fortes pluies liées à El Niño,...

Independent coverage (137)

El Comercio PerúDe sequías a lluvias extremas: el mundo ante la amenaza de u...
tportal.hrNakon smrtonosnog toplinskog vala u Europi stiže nova klimat...
Daily StarExtreme weather warning as 'catastrophic' Super El Niño rapi...
Euronews EnglishEl Niño is 'strengthening rapidly'. How worried should Europ...
Poder360El Niño deve se intensificar até setembro, diz ONU
Heute.at"Starke Intensität" - Experten schocken mit Prognose | Heute...
ExameEl Niño ameaça repetir isolamento de comunidades ribeirinhas...
vesti.ruМетеорологи предупредили о возможном усилении Эль-Ниньо - Но...
Olhar Digital - O futuro passa primeiro aquiEl Niño deve ganhar força nos próximos meses e ampliar calor...
Milenio.comOMM alerta por formación de El Niño traerá calor extremo
El TiempoAgencia científica de la ONU confirma que se está formando u...
The HinduEnvironmentalists urge T.N. government to set up dedicated E...
ExamePreços dos alimentos caem no mundo em junho, mas podem subir...
tagesschau.deUN-Wetterorganisation: El Niño macht Extremwetter jetzt wahr...
TerraEl Niño pode atingir nível forte até setembro, diz ONU
Deutsche WelleEl Niño pode atingir nível forte até setembro, diz ONU
PerfilLa OMM advirtió que el fenómeno de Super El Niño se intensif...
ND'Níveis recordes': ONU faz alerta global sobre El Niño e ráp...
La JornadaEl fenómeno de 'El Niño' evoluciona hacia un "episodio fuert...
РИА НовостиЭксперт-ученый ООН рассказал о влиянии Эль-Ниньо на температ...
RT en EspañolLa ONU lanza un 'aterrador' pronóstico para los próximos mes...
Montevideo Portal / Montevideo COMMONU advirtió por avance de El Niño y proyecta un "episodio f...
Российская газетаВ Тихом океане замечен предвестник грядущих климатических ка...
Der TagesspiegelMehr Dürre, Starkregen und Hitzewellen: Wetterbehörde erwart...
BFMTVIl augmente les évènements météorologiques extrêmes: le phén...
Life.ruЭль-Ниньо перерастает в мощную фазу -- миру грозят засухи, л...
TerraEl Niño começou e ficará intenso no final do ano, aponta agê...
Izvestia.ruУченые выразили обеспокоенность рекордным нагревом поверхнос...
24ur.comWMO opozarja na hiter razvoj El Nina in verjetnost ekstremni...
mintWMO warns strong El Niño could push global temperatures high...
TerraEl Niño forte se desenvolverá rapidamente nos próximos meses...
La Voix du NordEl Niño : le phénomène climatique sera probablement de " for...
The Jerusalem PostStrong El Nino will develop rapidly over coming months, says...
Diario EL PAIS UruguayInforme de la ONU anticipa que El Niño será "fuerte" y meteo...
GMA NetworkStrong El Niño will develop rapidly over coming months - UN ...
rts.chEl Niño se renforce : sécheresses et pluies extrêmes redouté...
The News InternationalUN raises alarm as intensifying El Niño threatens more 'extr...
Anadolu AjansıВМО: с усилением Эль-Ниньо ожидается рост риска экстремальны...
O PovoONU prevê intensificação do El Niño com fenômenos extremos
India TodayEl Nino declared in Pacific Ocean by WMO, warns it will beco...
www.paris-normandie.frMétéo. Canicules, sécheresses, pluies, orages : l'ONU et l'O...
En Son HaberDünya Meteoroloji Örgütü: El Nino'nun şiddetlenmesiyle aşırı...
ТСН.uaСупер-Эль-Ниньо стремительно усиливается: прогнозируют клима...
Anadolu AjansıDünya Meteoroloji Örgütü: El Nino'nun şiddetlenmesiyle aşırı...
eNCAnewsEl Nino set to be strong, UN warns
birgun.netEl Nino uyarısı: Aşırı hava olaylarının artması bekleniyor
HaberlerDünya Meteoroloji Örgütü: El Nino'nun şiddetlenmesiyle aşırı...
ВедомостиВМО предупредила о быстром усилении Эль-Ниньо и росте риска ...
The Straits TimesUN warns of strong looming El Nino
Radio SarajevoSvijet ulazi u novu fazu fenomena El Nino: Meteorolozi najav...
Economic TimesStrong El Nino likely to develop rapidly, says UN weather ag...
Economic TimesEl Niño officially returns in 2026: WMO warns climate event ...
Anadolu AjansıClimat : l'ONU alerte sur un El Niño qui devrait atteindre u...
B92Weather giant strengthens and could last 12 months PHOTO/VID...
Le MatinL'ONU annonce l'intensification du phénomène El Niño entre j...
der StandardEl Niño wird "stark", warnt die Weltwetterorganisation
Europe 1Le phénomène climatique El Niño en cours devrait être de "fo...
Malay MailUN agency warns El Niño set to intensify, global temperature...
El TiempoLa Organización Meteorológica Mundial prevé que el fenómeno ...
Le TelegrammeVagues de chaleur, sécheresse, fortes pluies... Le phénomène...
DH.beClimat - Le phénomène climatique El Niño en cours devrait êt...
Ouest FranceCanicule : le phénomène climatique El Niño en cours devrait ...
7sur7Le nouvel épisode El Niño devrait être de "forte" intensité,...
Salzburger NachrichtenWarnung vor einem "starken" Wetterphänomen El Niño
oe24Wetter-Experten warnen vor Mega-El-Niño
N-tvUN-Wetterbehörde schlägt Alarm: WMO warnt vor starkem El Niñ...
CBC NewsWhat's behind all the wild weather in Canada this summer?
slobodna-bosna.baNOVI KLIMATSKI ALARM: El Niño bi u narednim mjesecima mogao ...
kp.ruООН бьёт тревогу из-за Эль-Ниньо: миру предрекают засуху, ли...
Net.hrSuše, obilne oborine, uragani i toplinski valovi: Razvija se...
Dnevnik.hrEl Niño se već razvio, sada je na trećoj od četiri kategorij...
Jutarnji listAlarmantno izvješće iz WMO-a: 'Bojimo se da su projekcije to...
Telegram.hrWHO: 'El Niño se već razvio i ubrzano jača u snažan klimatsk...
Forbes.ruКлиматический фактор: как сдвиг аграрных поясов влияет на по...
tportal.hrEl Niño ubrzano jača u snažan klimatski događaj
RFIONU alerta para El Niño forte de julho a setembro, com impac...
IndexHRStiže snažan El Niño. Očekuju se toplinski valovi, suše i ob...
CNEWSVagues de chaleur, fortes pluies, sécheresse... El Niño devr...
Le Monde.frEl Niño : l'ONU alerte sur un épisode de forte intensité aug...
ObservadorONU prevê intensificação rápida das condições do El Niño nos...
20minutesLe phénomène El Niño en cours devrait être de " forte " inte...
Hindustan TimesEl Niño to amplify in coming months, likelihood of extreme w...
Le Figaro.frL'ONU alerte sur un renforcement rapide du phénomène climati...
infobaeLa ONU advirtió que "El Niño" se intensificará en los próxim...
Les NumériquesSuper El Niño" : un phénomène climatique hors normes arrive,...
NDTVEl Nino Set To Intensify Between July And September, Warns U...
El Financiero'Nos vamos a achicharrar': Prevén que fenómeno de El Niño se...
TheJournal.ieEl Niño phenomenon fuels likelihood of extreme weather over ...
@businesslineStrong El Niño may bring more extreme weather across the wor...
FranceinfoLe phénomène climatique El Niño "est déjà présent et devrait...
EL MUNDOLa Organización Meteorológica Mundial confirma que se está f...
Courrier picardVagues de chaleur, sécheresse, fortes pluies : El Niño prome...
La Libre.beDes experts alertent face au phénomène climatique El Niño: v...
Vosges MatinClimat. " Forte intensité " : le phénomène El Niño en cours ...
The Daily StarEl Nino set to be strong, UN warns
IOLThis year's El Nino set to be a strong one, UN warns
Ladepeche.frEl Niño : le phénomène climatique devrait atteindre une "for...
CNAEl Nino set to be strong, UN warns
L'essentielEl Niño pourrait nous en faire baver jusqu'en septembre
SudOuest.frClimat : le phénomène El Niño devrait atteindre une forte in...
DawnEl Niño to develop into strong event between July and Septem...
The Times of IndiaStrong El Niño on the way? UN warns of extreme weather risk ...
The New Indian ExpressEl Nino set to be strong, UN warns
Deutsche WelleONU: fenómeno de El Niño avanza hacia un "episodio fuerte"
Yahoo!ONU: fenómeno de El Niño evoluciona hacia un "episodio fuert...
Prensa LibreONU confirma la formación de un fuerte episodio de El Niño y...
Ouest FranceLe phénomène climatique El Niño devrait être de " forte inte...
EL HERALDOLa ONU confirma la formación de un fuerte fenómeno de El Niñ...
infobaeAgencia científica de la ONU confirma que se está formando u...
Le MatinClimat: El Niño pourrait nous en faire baver jusqu'en septem...
naiz:Alerta ante el avance de El Niño, vinculado a fenómenos extr...
Notícias ao MinutoONU prevê intensificação das condições do El Niño nos próxim...
LaVanguardiaUn 'Niño' "intenso" causará olas de calor, sequías y lluvias...
Le Huffington PostPourquoi le phénomène El Niño s'annonce plus fatal que jamai...
tzWetter-Phänomen bleibt den ganzen Sommer - droht Deutschland...
kp.ruЧетвертое Супер Эль-Ниньо за 50 лет: чего ждать от скандальн...
www.elcolombiano.comSe vienen sequías y olas de calor intensas: La Organización ...
newsORF.atWMO warnt vor "starkem" El Nino
Vecernji.hrSuper El Niño nezaustavljivo jača, svijetu prijete ekstremi ...
RNZHeads-up on El Niño gives rural sector time to prepare
NDEl Niño chegou? Meteorologista explica relação do fenômeno c...
RTBFEl Niño au Pérou : les autorités alertent d'un 'danger immin...
La Libre.beIntempéries - Pérou: "danger imminent" de fortes pluies, éta...
O PovoPeru declara emergência em quase 800 municípios por conta do...
news24FRIDAY BRIEFING | A 'Godzilla' El Niño is coming. Are we rea...
ynetnewsIsrael braces for extreme El Niño with flood, snow and storm...
OBOZREVATELМожет превзойти Эль-Ниньо: ученые впервые за 150 лет зафикси...
The ConversationHow an El Niño becomes a super El Niño
Berliner ZeitungVom Hitzerekord zum Extremwinter: Wie El Niño 2026/27 das Kl...
NZ HeraldDrought, unpicked apples, and freezing winters: El Nino's gr...
NZ HeraldEl Nino returns: What it means for NZ's spring and summer we...
Daily MaverickNew Zealand declares El Niño conditions, strong event likely
Correio do povoPeru declara emergência em quase 800 municípios por conta do...
NZ HeraldEl Nino officially declared in New Zealand
Otago Daily Times Online NewsStrong El Nino to have 'significant' impacts on the South
Sky News AustraliaWhen El Nino will start impacting Australia's weather after ...
South China Morning PostRecord heat expected in Hong Kong this year as 'super' El Ni...

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