WTO says Middle East conflict could slow global trade growth in 2026
The Facts
- The World Trade Organization said global trade in goods is expected to slow to 1.9% growth in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025.
- The WTO warned that the Middle East conflict could further weaken trade growth if it keeps energy prices high and disrupts global transport.
- The WTO said sustained high energy prices could increase risks for global trade and create spillovers for food security and costs for consumers and businesses.
- The WTO said travel and transport disruptions could put pressure on trade and food supplies if the conflict continues.
- The WTO said trade in 2025 was stronger than expected, helped by artificial-intelligence-related trade and front-loading of goods ahead of U.S. tariffs.
- Several reports said the WTO’s downside scenario would cut 2026 merchandise trade growth to about 1.4% if energy prices remain elevated.
Context
Why does the Middle East conflict matter for global trade?
The WTO said the conflict could keep energy prices high and disrupt transport, which would weigh on trade flows and economic activity NYT Yahoo! Finance WSJ. It also warned that higher energy costs could affect food supplies and raise costs for consumers and businesses Yahoo! Finance BFMTV.
How much slower could trade growth become if the conflict persists?
In its downside scenario, the WTO said merchandise trade growth could fall to about 1.4% in 2026 if energy prices stay elevated because of prolonged conflict Le Figaro.fr Yahoo! Finance Clarin BFMTV Bloomberg Business Todo Noticias.
What helped trade perform better in 2025?
The WTO said 2025 trade growth was boosted by a surge in AI-related trade and by companies front-loading goods to get ahead of U.S. tariffs NYT Yahoo! Finance mint Reuters.
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