NOAA says El Niño is likely to develop in the U.S. later this year as the West faces a major heat wave

First covered Thursday, March 19, 2026Science & ClimateWell-covered

The Facts

NOAA has said there is a 62% chance El Niño will develop between June and August and persist through at least the end of the year.
Multiple reports say the Pacific is currently transitioning away from La Niña conditions toward neutral conditions before a possible El Niño later in 2026.
El Niño is described as a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that involves warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and can affect weather far beyond the Pacific region.
Several reports say a strong or even 'super' El Niño is possible later in 2026, though the exact intensity remains uncertain.
Coverage across multiple outlets says El Niño years are associated with higher global temperatures and can contribute to more extreme weather, including drought, heavy rain, floods, and wildfires in different regions.
One report says 2025 was a relatively quiet year for U.S. climate disasters, with no major hurricanes making landfall and wildfire acreage below the 10-year average.
Reporting says the western U.S. is beginning a major heat wave that could be record-breaking.

Context

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific in which sea surface temperatures become warmer than normal, altering atmospheric circulation and weather patterns beyond the region Asbury Park Press,9NEWS,ZN.UA.

Why are forecasters paying attention to it now?

NOAA says the odds of El Niño forming this summer are 62%, and several reports note that the Pacific is shifting away from La Niña toward neutral conditions before a possible warm phase later in the year Asbury Park Press,9NEWS,InfoMoney,Journal Sentinel.

What could it mean for weather?

The sources say El Niño can influence weather worldwide, with coverage citing risks such as heavier rain and flooding in some places, drought and wildfire risk in others, and higher global temperatures overall Frankfurter Rundsch…,WUNDERWEIB.de,Stuttgarter-Zeitung…,N-tv.

NOAA has said there is a 62% chance El Niño will develop between June and August and persist through at least the end of the year.
Multiple reports say the Pacific is currently transitioning away from La Niña conditions toward neutral conditions before a possible El Niño later in 2026.
El Niño is described as a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that involves warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and can affect weather far beyond the Pacific region.
Several reports say a strong or even 'super' El Niño is possible later in 2026, though the exact intensity remains uncertain.
Coverage across multiple outlets says El Niño years are associated with higher global temperatures and can contribute to more extreme weather, including drought, heavy rain, floods, and wildfires in different regions.
One report says 2025 was a relatively quiet year for U.S. climate disasters, with no major hurricanes making landfall and wildfire acreage below the 10-year average.
Reporting says the western U.S. is beginning a major heat wave that could be record-breaking.

NOAA says El Niño is likely to develop in the U.S. later this year as the West faces a major heat wave

The Facts

Context

Independent coverage (66)

The news, read by both sides.

NOAA says El Niño is likely to develop in the U.S. later this year as the West faces a major heat wave

The Facts

Context

Independent coverage (66)

The news, read by both sides.