Study finds statistically significant acceleration in global warming since 2015
The Facts
- The study reports statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015.
- The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
- The study estimates the warming rate over the past 10 years at about 0.35°C per decade (with some variation by dataset).
- The study compares the recent warming rate to an average of just under 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015.
- The analysis accounts for natural influences on global temperature such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar variability.
- Multiple reports describe the recent warming rate as higher than any previous decade since instrumental records began in 1880.
Context
What time periods does the study compare to conclude warming has accelerated?
It compares an average warming rate of just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970–2015 with an estimated rate of about 0.35°C per decade over roughly the last 10 years (post-2015). Guardian Hindustan Times SAPO
How did the researchers separate long-term warming from short-term natural variability?
Reports say the researchers accounted for known natural influences on global temperature—such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions and solar variations—to better isolate the underlying warming trend and assess whether the acceleration is statistically significant. Hindustan Times DIE WELT ZEIT ONLINE
What does the study suggest about the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold if the recent warming rate continues?
One of the study’s co-authors, Stefan Rahmstorf, is quoted as saying that if the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit before 2030. Guardian Daily Mail
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