Migration Policy Institute estimates 980,000 deportations in Trump’s first 18 months
Rights & JusticeWell-covered
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The Facts
- The Migration Policy Institute estimated about 980,000 deportations from Jan. 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026.
- The analysis estimated about 660,000 deportations in the most recent year.
- The analysis estimated 620,000 deportations during the first year of Trump’s second administration.
- The estimated pace is below the administration’s 1 million annual-deportation goal.
- The Department of Homeland Security stopped publicly releasing comparable detailed enforcement statistics in January 2025.
- The Migration Policy Institute based its analysis on public records and Freedom of Information Act requests.
Context
What period does the estimate cover?
The Migration Policy Institute’s estimate covers Jan. 20, 2025, the start of Trump’s second term, through July 31, 2026. infobae El Universal diariolibre.com
Why are the deportation figures estimates?
The analysis used publicly available information and Freedom of Information Act requests after DHS stopped routinely publishing comparable detailed statistics in January 2025. U.S. News & World R… Boston Globe infobae
How does the estimated pace compare with the administration’s target?
The report’s estimate of about 660,000 deportations in the most recent year is below the administration’s stated goal of 1 million per year. U.S. News & World R… Independent Milenio.com
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Both frames treat the pace as falling short of the administration's own million-a-year target and agree that the government, not outside researchers, bears the burden of accounting for the numbers.
- Where Left and Right split
- The left and the right want the government held accountable — for human-scale power or a missed number.
- Why they won’t converge
- The divide is one of trust in institutions: the left treats the government's halt in publishing its own enforcement data as reason to doubt any claim of progress, while the right treats the administration's self-set numeric target as the sole fair yardstick regardless of who counts it.
How left and right read it
Nearly a million deportations in under two years is a vast exercise of state power over people's lives, yet the public knows this only because outside researchers compiled it from public records and open-records requests, since the government stopped publishing its own statistics. Official figures have been inconsistent, so government, not outside researchers, should have to account for who it removes before claiming progress toward its annual goal.
“Homeland Security stopped publishing routine statistics when Trump took office, while figures released by the administration have been inconsistent and difficult to verify independently” — The Independent
A government that promises enforcement owes voters proof it delivered, measured against the number it named. Going from roughly 620,000 removals in the first year to about 660,000 in the most recent one is real movement, yet both figures sit under the million-a-year commitment, and that gap is the administration's own standard to meet. Own the metric. Hit the million, and show the work.
The deportation tally is turning into two tests at once: proof of power used, and proof of a promise kept.
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