Met Office says developing El Niño is likely the strongest in more than a century
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The Facts
- The UK Met Office said the El Niño developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in more than a century.
- Forecasts show equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising more than 3C above the baseline average.
- A typical El Niño raises those Pacific sea temperatures by 1C to 2C, according to Met Office forecaster Adam Scaife.
- Scaife, the Met Office's head of long-range forecasting, called the event "unprecedented" and said he had never seen a signal this intense.
- The Met Office said the pattern raises the risk of a wet and stormy autumn in the UK.
- Added to human-caused climate change, the Met Office expects 2027 to be the hottest year on record.
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-average temperatures across nearly all US states from September through November.
- The US plans to send the hospital ship USNS Comfort to Peru's northern coast in February 2027 to support El Niño preparations.
- Scientists caution the pattern may not deliver enough precipitation to ease water shortages in the western United States.
Context
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate cycle marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, caused by weakening trade winds Reuters,CNN International. It is declared when tropical eastern Pacific temperatures rise 0.5C above the baseline average, triggering worldwide shifts in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall Dawn. It occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months Reuters.
What do US forecasters say about how strong this event will be?
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a "very strong" El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 at 90%, and says there is a 69% chance the October-December season exceeds the strength of any event dating back to 1950 CBS News. AccuWeather said confidence the pattern will meet the threshold for a "super" El Niño is near 100% Newsweek.
When are the effects expected to be felt most?
Meteorologists say some early signals may appear by October, with the most noticeable impacts intensifying from late fall into winter, when the event is forecast to peak in strength Newsweek,Yahoo News. In Peru, the peak is expected around February 2027 Independent. Effects are already being reported elsewhere, including below-average monsoon rains in India, suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, and a jump in Indonesian fire hotspots to the highest level in more than a decade BBC,Bloomberg Business.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- A signal this far outside precedent — over 3C against a typical 1C to 2C — is credible enough to act on before the wet, stormy autumn arrives.
- Where Left and Right split
- Whether the story is about a warning that justifies faster emissions cuts and climate finance, or about a forecast whose value is concrete preparation like the ship headed to Peru.
How left and right read it
A warning this far outside precedent is exactly when public money should move first, because the people hit hardest by a wet, stormy autumn or a record-hot year are never the ones with the resources to absorb it. The Met Office is describing sea temperatures rising more than 3C above average when a typical event brings 1C to 2C, and it expects human-caused warming to push 2027 to the hottest year on record — so this is a compound crisis, as one account put it, "all against the background of global aid cuts and ever dwindling international climate finance budgets." Cut emissions faster and fund resilience and disaster assistance now, not after the damage is counted.
“And this year, we face the double threat of the climate crisis and an unprecedented 'super' El Niño, all against the background of global aid cuts and ever dwindling international climate finance budgets.” — The Independent
A forecast earns its keep by helping people and governments prepare, not by supplying ammunition for sweeping policy. Scaife calls this signal one without precedent, with Pacific temperatures above 3C against a typical 1C to 2C, and that precision is what makes the warning of a wet, stormy British autumn something to act on. Preparation and targeted help, like the hospital ship bound for Peru, is what the warning earns.
“Britain should brace for a wet and stormy autumn after months of drought, forecasters have warned.” — The Telegraph
The receipts — all 78 sources
Wire services (3)
Independent coverage (50)
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