Moody’s says India and other oil importers may seek bilateral transit arrangements with Iran
The Facts
- Moody’s Ratings said India and other oil-importing nations are likely to negotiate bilaterally with Iran to secure energy supplies.
- Moody’s said these arrangements could involve coordinated transit corridors rather than a broad reopening of normal shipping routes.
- Moody’s said there is little prospect of a swift and durable settlement between the US and Iran, reducing the chances of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Moody’s said transit flows may improve gradually from current very low levels, but the process is expected to be slow and vulnerable to interruption.
- Moody’s said a return to pre-war traffic volumes is unlikely in 2026.
- Moody’s identified major Asian importers including China, India, Japan and Korea as countries expected to seek such arrangements, indicating the issue affects several large energy buyers beyond India.
- Moody’s said constrained transit through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to keep energy supplies tight and contribute to higher and more volatile oil prices.
Context
Why are countries considering bilateral talks with Iran?
Moody’s said countries are looking at bilateral arrangements because it sees little chance of a quick, durable US-Iran settlement and therefore little chance of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the near term cnbctv18.com,Telegraph,NDTV Profit.
Which countries did Moody’s say are most likely to pursue these arrangements?
Moody’s specifically named China, India, Japan and Korea as oil importers expected to negotiate passage arrangements to help secure energy supplies Business Standard,Tribune,NewsDrum.
What remains uncertain?
Moody’s said transit flows may recover only gradually and through limited bilateral channels, with the process likely to be slow, opaque and subject to interruption; it also said pre-war traffic levels are unlikely to return in 2026 Business Standard,Tribune,Rediff.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Major Asian oil importers are likely to work around the absence of a swift US-Iran settlement by negotiating directly with Iran, but any corridor-based recovery in transit is expected to be slow, fragile, and insufficient to prevent tighter supplies and more volatile prices.
- Where Left and Right split
- Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: the broader economic fallout of a prolonged geopolitical standoff for energy-dependent economies, versus the practical need for major importers to bypass stalled diplomacy and secure supplies through direct arrangements with Iran.
How left and right read it
What stands out is how a prolonged geopolitical standoff is pushing major Asian importers, including India, to seek bilateral arrangements with Iran and rely on coordinated transit corridors instead of a full reopening of normal routes. With flows expected to recover only slowly and remain vulnerable to interruption, Moody’s points to tighter supplies and more volatile oil prices that can ripple broadly through energy-dependent economies.
Moody’s points to a world in which major Asian importers such as India, Japan, Korea, and China cannot wait on a swift US-Iran settlement and instead are likely to negotiate directly with Iran to secure supplies. That matters because coordinated transit corridors, slow and interruption-prone flows, and no return to pre-war traffic volumes in 2026 all suggest tighter supplies and more volatile oil prices.
The receipts — 11 sources
Wire services (1)
Independent coverage (10)
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