U.S. PCE Inflation Rose 0.5% in September
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The Facts
- The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September from August.
- The PCE price index was 3.6% higher in September than a year earlier.
- Annual PCE inflation increased from 3.4% in August to 3.6% in September.
- The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred inflation measure.
- The Federal Reserve's PCE inflation target is an annual increase near 2%.
- Energy prices rose 9.2% from August to September.
- The Federal Reserve held its target interest-rate range at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Context
What is the PCE price index?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index tracks consumer prices and is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. NYT Hill
How does September's inflation reading compare with the Fed's target?
Annual PCE inflation was 3.6% in September, above the Federal Reserve's target of an annual increase near 2%. NYT theepochtimes.com
What contributed to the September increase?
Energy prices, including gasoline, rose 9.2% from August to September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Hill
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Annual PCE inflation rose to 3.6% — still above the Fed's 2% target — driven largely by a 9.2% one-month jump in energy prices, even as rates held at 3.75%-4.00%.
- Where Left and Right split
- Left and right split on whether the energy spike justifies holding steady or demands a clearer path to 2%.
- Why they won’t converge
- The disagreement is about trust in institutional timing: whether the Fed's steady 3.75%-4.00% stance reflects appropriate patience with a single volatile month or an unkept promise against its own 2% target, a judgment no fact resolves.
How left and right read it
A 9.2% one-month jump in energy prices lands hardest on households with no slack in the budget, and it is what pushed annual PCE inflation from 3.4% to 3.6% — still above the 2% target the Fed watches. That gap deserves vigilance. But vigilance is not the same as abandoning a 3.75%-to-4.00% stance over a single energy-driven month.
“The pick up in prices provided further confirmation that inflation is running hotter than Fed officials would like.” — The New York Times
A price target is a promise, and 3.6% annual PCE against a 2% goal is a promise still unkept. The Fed's own chosen gauge rose 0.5% in a month and climbed from 3.4% in August, driven in part by energy prices up 9.2%, yet rates held steady at 3.75% to 4.00%. What is the plan to get the number to 2%?
“President Trump has done a great job messaging the hottest economy in the world.” — Fox Business
3.6% is the same number read two ways: proof the Fed can wait, and proof the Fed owes a plan to reach 2%.
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