Oil Trades Near $95 a Barrel After Renewed U.S.-Iran Strikes; Prices Ease Thursday
Business & MarketsWell-covered
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The Facts
- U.S. forces struck two missile launchers on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Aug. 30.
- The Aug. 30 strike was the first known U.S. attack on Iran since late July.
- Iran retaliated by attacking two U.S. air bases in Jordan.
- The U.S.-Iran war is in its seventh month, according to Reuters reporting.
- Brent crude futures settled 1% higher on Wednesday at $95.63 a barrel, a five-week high.
- Wednesday's session highs for Brent and WTI were the highest since July 24.
- President Trump said Wednesday the renewed campaign against Iran would not go on "too long."
- Oil prices edged lower Thursday, with Brent near $95.20 and WTI near $90.77 a barrel.
- Before the war began in late February, about one-fifth of global oil supply moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Talks to end the conflict have stalled, with mediators still working to reopen the strait to shipping.
Context
Why does the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices?
The strait is one of the world's most important oil transit routes; before the war roughly a fifth of global oil supplies passed through it, so any threat to its security moves prices immediately РБК-Украина,OBOZREVATEL,РБК-Украина. Traffic remains far below normal: four commodity vessels transited on Wednesday, against a 10-day average of about 13 Times of India,Economic Times.
Why did prices fall back after the initial spike?
Traders saw tentative signs the flare-up was easing and evidence that crude is still reaching the market Reuters,CNA. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the highest level since the war reduced flows finanzen.ch, and Trump signaled the campaign would be short Investing.com,Economic Times.
What does this mean beyond the oil market?
Crude prices have climbed roughly 60% this year, with refined products such as diesel rising faster amid the conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine cnbctv18.com. Higher energy costs are feeding into gasoline, diesel and other fuels, and inflation fears have weighed on bonds while raising borrowing costs NYT. Brent has risen about 20% from roughly $79 in early July mint.
Were there casualties from the latest strikes?
Iran's health minister said eight people were killed and 108 wounded in Tuesday night's U.S. strikes across Iran, and the Iranian Red Crescent said four people were killed and 67 wounded at a wedding ceremony near the coast of the Strait of Hormuz RTE.ie. These figures come from a single outlet's reporting and have not been independently confirmed in the source pool.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
Left and right largely agree on this one.
- Where Left and Right agree
- Both read the seventh-month war as something to end, not sustain, and treat Trump's "not too long" as a standard he owes proof on, not reassurance.
- Where Left and Right differ in emphasis
- Left and right both want the war ended — they split on what clinches it: costs at home or return fire.
- Why they won’t converge
- The divide is time-horizon and trust in a stated intention, not evidence: both sides read the same prices and the same retaliation, then split over whether "not too long" is a checkable commitment or an open-ended placeholder.
How left and right read it
Seven months in, this war's cost shows up in the borrowing costs that, as the Times puts it, "threaten to squeeze consumers and businesses." That is why a strike on Larak Island, answered by attacks on two U.S. air bases and a five-week high in Brent crude, matters at home — because "not too long" is reassurance, not a plan. Ending the campaign, rather than prolonging it, is the demand.
“And fears of accelerating inflation have bucked financial markets, especially bonds, compounding worries about debt levels and deficits. Rising borrowing costs also threaten to squeeze consumers and businesses, a risk to economic growth and a relatively resilient stock market.” — The New York Times
A war in its seventh month should be measured by whether it ends, not by how long it can be sustained. Because a strike on two missile launchers brought retaliation against two U.S. air bases in Jordan while leaving Brent at a five-week high, the burden of proof now rests on continuing rather than on stopping. The President's own "not too long" is the standard he should be held to.
When both sides quote the President's own "not too long" back at him, that phrase stops being reassurance and starts being a deadline.
The receipts — all 91 sources
Wire services (7)
Independent coverage (50)
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