OECD says a prolonged Iran conflict could slow global growth and push some economies toward recession

What are the OECD's two main scenarios?

The OECD set out a baseline scenario in which a peace agreement is reached relatively soon and disruptions to energy supplies and shipping ease, and a longer-disruption scenario in which the conflict and related disruptions continue into 2027 China Daily Asia,Investing.com,CNBC.

Why does the conflict matter so much for the global economy?

The OECD said the conflict affects the world economy mainly by disrupting oil, gas and shipping flows and lifting energy prices, which then feed into weaker household spending, lower business investment and higher inflation CNBC,cnbctv18.com,Morningstar.

What is still uncertain?

The key uncertainty is how long the conflict and supply disruptions last. The OECD said the outlook changes sharply depending on whether exports and shipping recover soon or remain impaired into 2027 China Daily Asia,Straits Times,Morningstar.