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Nature study finds many coastal sea-level risk assessments used underestimated baseline water heights

First covered Wednesday, March 4, 2026Science & ClimateWell-covered

The Facts

  • The findings were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.
  • The researchers reviewed hundreds of scientific studies and hazard/risk assessments and concluded that most underestimated baseline coastal water heights.
  • The study estimates that about 90% of the reviewed assessments underestimated baseline coastal water heights.
  • Across locations, the study reports an average underestimation of roughly 30 centimeters (about 1 foot).
  • Multiple reports say the underestimation problem is more frequent in the Global South, including the Pacific and Southeast Asia, than in Europe and along Atlantic coasts.
  • The study and coverage attribute the underestimation to inconsistencies or mismatches in how sea level and land elevation are measured and referenced (vertical datums/altitude reference surfaces).
  • The research suggests the discrepancy could materially affect estimates of coastal flooding exposure and related planning for climate-change-driven sea-level rise.

Context

What exactly does the study say was underestimated?

It says many assessments used a baseline coastal water height that was too low—meaning the starting point for estimating flooding and exposure was underestimated, by about 30 cm on average across the reviewed work. Weather Channel Guardian Hindu

Why does the study say this underestimation happens?

Coverage of the study says the error often comes from mismatches in how sea level and land elevation are measured and referenced—using different vertical reference surfaces (datums) or models that don’t align with observed local sea surface heights. Weather Channel DIE WELT as

Where does the study indicate the problem is most pronounced?

Reports say it is more frequent in parts of the Global South—particularly the Pacific and Southeast Asia/Indo-Pacific—while being less common in Europe and along Atlantic coasts. Weather Channel Guardian NBC News

See this differently than someone you know would?

The receipts — 81 sources

Wire services (3)

APContraPuntoEl nivel del mar es más alto de lo que se creía y millones d...
APscience.apa.atNeue Berechnung: Meeresspiegel an Küsten höher als bisher an...
APCourt House News ServiceThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...

Independent coverage (78)

Stuttgarter-Zeitung.deMeeresspiegel: Pegel liegen bis zu einem Meter höher als ged...
La RazónEl nivel del mar asciende más rápido de lo previsto por los ...
Diario El MundoEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...
DIE WELTForschung: Die meisten Studien berechnen den Anstieg des Mee...
DutchNews.nlSea levels much higher than assumed, Dutch scientists discov...
Agencia SincEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...
La Presse.caÉvaluation du niveau de la mer | Un angle mort aux conséquen...
Heute.atSieben Meter! Meeresspiegel steigt stärker als gedacht | Heu...
NBC NewsThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
Trust My ScienceUne étude révèle que le niveau réel de la mer a été largemen...
heise onlineNeue Berechnung: Meeresspiegel an Küsten höher als bislang a...
No2NuclearPowerClimate - No2NuclearPower
asLos científicos muestran su preocupación por el nivel del ma...
supplychainbrain.comSea Levels Underestimated by Average 12", Say Researchers
La Voz de GaliciaLa altura del nivel del mar se podría haber subestimado en u...
The Maitland MercurySea higher than thought, millions more at risk: study
PBS.orgStudy finds sea levels are higher than we thought, placing m...
The IndependentSea levels are already a foot higher than most scientists es...
The HinduSea is higher than we thought, millions more at risk: study
DNyuzSea Levels Are Already Higher Than Many Scientists Think, Ne...
The News InternationalNew research suggests global sea levels have been underestim...
CPG Click Petróleo e GásQuase 99% dos estudos erraram a altura do mar, e isso mexe c...
PplwareOs níveis do mar em todo o mundo são muito mais altos do que...
Local3News.comEl nivel del mar es más alto de lo que se creía y millones d...
Internewscast JournalRising Sea Levels Threaten Millions More, New Study Reveals ...
Público.esUn estudio revela que hay una subestimación de hasta 1,5 met...
The Weather ChannelThe Sea Is Higher Than We Thought And Millions More Are At R...
Post and CourierSea Levels Are Already Higher Than Many Scientists Think, Ne...
Post and CourierSea Levels Are Already Higher Than Many Scientists Think, Ne...
The Korea TimesSea levels already higher than thought and millions more at ...
20minutesUne étude alerte sur une sous-estimation de la montée du niv...
NewserGlobal Sea Level Estimates Are Way Off
Um só PlanetaEstudo aponta nível do mar até 30 cm acima do estimado - um...
NEWS OnlineNeue Berechnung: Meeresspiegel an Küsten höher als bisher an...
El Siglo de TorreónEl nivel del mar aumenta más de lo previsto y pone a millone...
Periódico El DíaEl nivel del mar aumenta más de lo previsto y pone a millone...
www.diariolibre.comEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...
OneindiaSea level rise risk may be higher as studies underestimate b...
DeutschlandfunkWissenschaft - Neue Berechnungen: Meeresspiegel an Küsten hö...
AllTocWhy are sea level estimates higher now?
The Boston GlobeThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
Diario La TribunaEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...
LaVanguardiaEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...
science.ORF.atMeeresspiegel an Küsten höher als angenommen
VEJANível do mar foi subestimado em até 1,5 metro por falhas em ...
FOCUSMeeresspiegel: Jahrelang falsch gerechnet - bittere Folgen d...
Orange ActualitésL'élévation du niveau des océans pourrait avoir été sous-est...
imazpress.comL'élévation du niveau des océans pourrait avoir été sous-est...
ZEIT ONLINEKlimawandel: Risiko steigender Meeresspiegel an Küsten wurde...
MetroEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...
Yahoo! FinanceThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
9NEWSThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
LatestLYStudy Says Millions More Are Exposed to Rising Seas Than Tho...
20 minutosEl nivel del mar ha subido hasta un metro y medio más de lo ...
2 News NevadaThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
PublicoA subida do nível do mar pode ser, afinal, entre 30 cm e um ...
EL PAÍSLa altura del nivel del mar en las costas del planeta es may...
DNyuzSea Levels Are Higher Than Many Scientists Think, New Study ...
López-Dóriga Digitalnivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los mod...
WTOPThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
Daily Mail OnlineThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
N-tvNeue Berechnung zeigt Gefahr: Meeresspiegel teils mehrere Me...
News 4 JaxThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
MAZ - Märkische AllgemeineMeeresspiegel höher als angenommen: Millionen Menschen bedro...
LN - Lübecker NachrichtenMeeresspiegel höher als angenommen: Millionen Menschen bedro...
New ScientistSea levels around the world are much higher than we thought
Daily Mail OnlineSea levels may be up to 4.9 feet HIGHER than we thought
The GuardianGlobal sea levels have been underestimated due to poor model...
FocusStudien lagen daneben: Meeresspiegel höher als angenommen
Süddeutsche ZeitungStudie: Meeresniveau an Küsten höher als angenommen
Science NewsHundreds of studies have missed how much the oceans are risi...
WXOWScientists find sea levels are already much higher than we t...
watson.ch/Meeresspiegel an Küsten höher als bislang angenommen
U.S. News & World ReportThe Sea Is Higher Than We Thought and Millions More Are at R...
Der TagesspiegelMeeresspiegel höher als gedacht: Studie zeigt: Modelle unter...
Chicago TribuneEl nivel del mar aumenta más de lo previsto y pone a millone...
NBC ChicagoThe sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at r...
UDG TVEl nivel del mar ha subido mucho más de lo estimado por los ...

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