Lagarde says ECB may adjust policy if Iran war energy shock pushes inflation higher
The Facts
- Christine Lagarde said the ECB could tighten policy if the energy shock from the Iran war causes inflation to rise enough above target.
- Lagarde said the ECB will wait for sufficient information on the size, persistence and transmission of the shock before acting.
- Lagarde said the ECB is committed to delivering 2% inflation over the medium term and will not be “paralyzed by hesitation.”
- Lagarde said a large but not very persistent inflation overshoot could still justify a measured policy adjustment.
- Lagarde said the ECB sees different possible responses depending on how large and long-lasting the energy shock turns out to be.
- Lagarde said the recent memory of high inflation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could make firms and workers pass on costs and seek compensation more quickly this time.
- The ECB left interest rates unchanged last week while policymakers discussed when a rate increase might be needed if inflation pressures intensify.
Context
Why is Lagarde talking about possible rate changes now?
Because the Iran war has pushed up energy prices, and the ECB is assessing whether that shock could feed into broader inflation. Lagarde said the bank may need to respond if the rise in prices becomes large enough or lasts long enough to threaten the 2% target Reuters Bloomberg Business.
Did Lagarde say the ECB will raise rates immediately?
No. She said the ECB will not act until it has enough information about the shock’s size, persistence and spread, even though it is prepared to move if needed Bloomberg Business Il Sole 24 ORE europa press.
What did Lagarde mean about firms and workers reacting faster than before?
She said the inflation surge after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left a recent memory of high prices, which could make businesses pass on higher costs more quickly and workers seek compensation sooner if energy prices keep rising Daily Mail U.S. News & World R….
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