WFP report says strengthening El Niño could push nearly 49 million more people into acute food insecurity
How left and right are reading this
- Both agree
- A near-certain El Niño landing on populations already worn down by drought and high food prices is a foreseeable shock, and acting before it hits beats reacting after.
- They split on
- Whether the story is about an unmet obligation to the 49 million — including funding the data that spots crises — or about disciplined early action against a hazard whose forecasts remain uncertain.
The Facts
- WFP said in a report released Wednesday that a powerful El Niño could push an additional nearly 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year.
- The agency put the probability of a very strong El Niño event at 81%, with sea surface temperatures at their warmest levels since at least 1982 and the potential to be the strongest such event since 1950.
- The projection is based on an assessment of 45 countries most vulnerable to El Niño, where the number of acutely food-insecure people would rise from about 225 million to roughly 274 million.
- Central America and southern Africa are projected to see the steepest increases in acute food insecurity, while parts of south and southeast Asia are expected to receive less rainfall than usual.
- El Niño is a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific that alters global weather patterns and is often associated with drought in southern Africa, delayed monsoons in parts of Asia and erratic rainfall elsewhere.
- WFP said the forecast adds pressure to populations already facing hunger from multi-year drought in parts of Africa and higher food prices linked to the war involving Iran.
- WFP and partners said they are scaling up preparedness and early-action efforts in vulnerable countries, including preparing for floods, droughts and storms before they hit; Acting Executive Director Carl Skau called El Niño "a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable."
- WFP cautioned that forecasts remain uncertain and vary by region, and said reduced funding has cut food-security data collection, making it harder to identify and monitor emerging crises.
Context
What does "acute food insecurity" mean in this context?
WFP uses the term for crisis-level hunger, the threshold at which households cannot meet basic food needs without assistance. The agency estimates about 225 million people across the 45 countries it assessed are currently in that category, and projects the figure could reach roughly 274 million if a strong El Niño develops УНІАН,Anadolu Ajansı,Irish Examiner.
Why is southern Africa considered especially exposed?
WFP said many households in southern Africa depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, which makes harvests highly sensitive to the disrupted rainfall associated with El Niño; the agency has previously linked drought in the region to the pattern RT,Japan Times. Coverage in South Africa noted the country is not among the 45 countries in WFP's food-insecurity assessment but could still face higher food prices and drought risk over the next two years IOL,IOL.
How certain is the forecast, and what happens next?
WFP framed the projection as a probability rather than a certainty, saying there is an 81% chance of a very strong event and that regional impacts remain uncertain, while urging governments and aid agencies to prepare in advance NDTV,Straits Times. The agency said that even a weaker-than-forecast El Niño would still add more than a fifth to the number of people already in acute food insecurity Irish Examiner,Interfax.ru.
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