Iran Says Hormuz Shipping Route Deal With Oman Is in Final Stage as Trump Predicts Imminent Announcement
The Facts
- Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Wednesday that Iran and Oman had reached an understanding on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz and that an agreement was in its "final stage" of drafting, with a joint statement to follow if "certain parties" did not obstruct it.
- Iran has largely blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February; before the war roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway.
- A senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters that the proposed Iran-Oman arrangement would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait, a departure from the pre-war system of passage without transit charges or approval from any single country.
- U.S. officials have said Washington would not accept an arrangement that lets Iran control access to the strait or charge fees for passage, and the Trump administration has previously ruled out a deal cementing Iran's grip on the waterway.
- Trump said an agreement could be reached as early as Wednesday, telling reporters "it could happen. Tomorrow or the next day," while warning that Iran would be "hit really hard" if it backed out of negotiations again.
- Baghaei said an agreement with Oman would not by itself guarantee security or safe navigation in the strait, pointing to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports; reporting indicates any deal is likely contingent on that blockade being lifted.
- Iranian state television, citing an unidentified informed source, said a possible agreement with Oman would have no bearing on an immediate reopening of the strait, and Iranian officials described the talks as strictly bilateral with Oman while denying negotiations with Washington.
- Reports of a near-final agreement pushed oil prices lower, with Brent falling below $80 a barrel in a third consecutive day of declines, and lifted European equity indexes including the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40.
- The closure of the strait has raised fuel and basic goods prices well beyond the region, and Trump faces pressure to end the war ahead of U.S. midterm congressional elections later this year.
Context
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter to the global economy?
The strait sits between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, and before the war carried about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports BBC,NDTV,News18. Its closure has driven up fuel and basic goods prices far beyond the Middle East and caused global oil prices to swing sharply BBC,Hindustan Times,News18.
What terms have been reported for the proposed arrangement?
Axios, citing regional sources and a U.S. official, reported a 60-day interim framework that would route inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters, with no tolls during the temporary period and an effort to clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days Investing.com,Investing.com,Hindustan Times. Reuters reporting indicates the Iran-Oman understanding would place ships entering the Gulf under Iranian oversight, replacing decades of largely unrestricted passage Aol,News18.
What remains unresolved?
The United States has not publicly commented on the Iran-Oman proposal and has said it would reject any arrangement giving Iran control over access or the right to charge fees Aol,BBC,NDTV. Sources cited by Reuters also pushed back on Trump's assertion that a reopening deal was imminent, Iranian state media said an Oman agreement would not trigger an immediate reopening, and Tehran denies it is negotiating with Washington at all Aol,infobae,Fox News.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Both read the reported arrangement as a loss: a waterway once open to all without fees or any single country's approval would now run through Tehran's discretion.
- Where Left and Right split
- Bombing that manufactured the very leverage it was meant to destroy, or trading a universal rule of passage for a revocable permission slip.
How left and right read it
Baghaei said Wednesday that Iran and Oman have settled on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with drafting in its final stage. Eleven months after U.S. and Israeli strikes shut a waterway carrying a fifth of the world's oil and gas, the deal reportedly hands Tehran control over inbound traffic — and Trump's answer is that Iran gets hit hard if it walks. Bombing produced the leverage it was meant to destroy. That is the cost worth naming.
“The agreement on an acceptable route for ships to pass through the strait would effectively ratify Tehran's control over the crucial waterway.” — The New York Times
A fifth of the world's oil and LNG once moved through Hormuz under a simple rule: passage without transit charges or any single country's approval. The reported arrangement would hand Tehran control over inbound traffic, and Washington has said it will not accept Iranian control or fees. Baghaei already frames whatever gets signed as provisional, contingent on the blockade lifting. Why trade a rule everyone could rely on for a permission slip revocable at Tehran's discretion?
“Even if a deal is reached, Iran says, it would only be temporary unless what it calls US "aggression" ends.” — New York Post
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