UN weather agency forecasts 'very strong' El Niño persisting through February 2027
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The Facts
- The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a "very strong" event.
- WMO forecasts put the likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.
- The WMO said this was the first time one of its El Niño updates had been "so unequivocal."
- The WMO expects the event to peak toward the end of 2026 before easing.
- The WMO warned of increased risks of floods, drought and extreme heat in different regions of the world.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world had entered "a danger zone of extreme weather."
- WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño could deliver "a massive blow to communities and economies across the world."
- The WMO said sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific are already exceptionally high.
- UK environment secretary Angela Eagle urged British households to keep several days of food and water on hand.
- Forecasters say 2027 could become the hottest year on record as ocean heat is released into the atmosphere.
Context
What is El Niño and how does it change the weather?
El Niño is a natural warming of sea water in the equatorial Pacific that interferes with weather patterns worldwide USA Today,Indian Express. It brings drought to some regions and heavier rainfall, flooding and more intense tropical storms to others, and raises temperatures in some places on top of human-caused global warming BBC,BBC. The WMO expects above-average rainfall in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern United States BBC.
What has Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said?
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says the event to Australia's east is already breaking heat records and that forecasts show it will likely surpass previous El Niño events, with Pacific ocean temperature change exceeding 2C in six months Guardian. Separate research cited by the Guardian suggested climate change had shortened the odds of the event reaching record extremes Guardian. Some Australian scientists have nicknamed the event "El Niño Godzilla" La Repubblica.
How are governments responding?
Peru's finance ministry said its draft 2027 public budget includes S/2,489 million to address El Niño events, split between national government, regional governments and municipalities infobae. Argentina's national weather service put the probability of El Niño continuing through September–November at 100%, at strong or very strong intensity infobae. In the UK, the government is planning a campaign urging citizens to prepare for national emergencies Guardian. Saulo said El Niño "does not have to be a recipe for disaster" because forecasts allow early action infobae.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- An unprecedentedly confident forecast of floods, drought and extreme heat is treated by both as a real bill coming due, demanding preparation now rather than after the peak.
- Where Left and Right split
- Whether the story is about who gets funded to withstand the blow and who absorbs it, or about hardened infrastructure and households able to ride out a bad month unaided.
- Why they won’t converge
- This is a values divide over who owes what: agreeing the forecast is near-certain settles nothing about whether the cost of floods, drought and heat belongs to public budgets or to prepared households.
- Watch for
- Watch the Peruvian and Chilean anchovy season, already failing to arrive, and whether global agricultural markets show the widescale disruption expected from the strongest El Nino in at least 70 years.Al Jazeera Online, mint
How left and right read it
A near-certain forecast is a bill that lands on the people with the least cushion — floods, drought and extreme heat hit households and public services that were already stretched thin. Forecasters have never been this unequivocal, and Pacific sea temperatures are already exceptionally high, so treating this as background noise is a choice. The blow is described as massive. Who gets funded to withstand it, and who is left to absorb it?
“After a summer of record-breaking heatwaves and extreme weather due to global heating, El Niño means 2027 is almost certain to be the hottest year ever recorded.” — The Guardian
A forecast this confident earns a practical response, not a political one. When forecasters call an event "very strong" with near-certainty into February 2027 and warn of floods, drought and extreme heat, the honest reply is hardened infrastructure, stocked supply chains, and households capable of riding out a bad month on their own. That is why the advice now reaching British families is to keep food at home. Build the resilience first.
“The Environment Secretary has advised the British public to stockpile food before the biggest El Niño on record.” — The Telegraph
The receipts — all 71 sources
Wire services (1)
Independent coverage (50)
Facts first. Then every angle.
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