Study attributes record temperatures in Europe's seas this summer to human-caused climate change
The Facts
- The World Weather Attribution group published an analysis on Wednesday of this summer's sea temperatures around Europe.
- The analysis concluded human-caused climate change was the main driver of the record sea temperatures.
- Researchers estimated climate change added about 2C of warming to the Mediterranean this summer.
- The study attributed about 1.4C of warming to the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula region and 1.3C to the Celtic region.
- Sea-surface temperatures in some areas ran more than 6C above normal levels.
- The Mediterranean averaged just over 27C in July, the highest for any July on record.
- The hottest 14-day periods of the year would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate in three of the four regions studied.
- Scientists said the warming threatens marine ecosystems, fisheries and coastal communities.
- Researchers said warmer seas increase the risk of intense storms and extreme rainfall on land later in the year.
Context
What is World Weather Attribution and how did it reach these findings?
WWA is an international consortium of scientists that uses peer-reviewed methods to estimate how much global warming influenced a specific extreme event Reuters,infobae. For this study the team compared observed July sea-surface temperatures with climate model simulations of a hypothetical world without human-caused warming Bluewin.ch,Franceinfo,IndexHR. Contributors came from institutions in Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, Ireland and the UK, including Imperial College London and the University of Bern Hürriyet,infobae,POLITICO.
Which sea regions did the study cover?
The researchers examined four European coastal regions: the Celtic seas around the British Isles and Ireland, the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula area, and the western and eastern Mediterranean LaVanguardia,Guardian,as. Temperatures along nearly all European coasts were above the 1990-2020 average, with the western Mediterranean, Bay of Biscay and Iberian Peninsula among the most affected T-online.de,IndexHR.
What are the consequences of hotter seas?
Scientists said elevated sea temperatures harm marine species, disrupt food chains and boost jellyfish populations POLITICO,Jutarnji list. They also warned the extra ocean heat can fuel destructive storms and extreme rainfall later in the year, with researchers pointing to risks for coastal populations and fisheries Bloomberg Business,EL PAÍS,El HuffPost. The report's authors called for moving away from fossil fuels T-online.de.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Attribution is treated as settled — roughly 2C added to the Mediterranean is real warming, and the fisheries and coastal communities scientists flag are genuinely exposed.
- Where Left and Right split
- Whether the story is about the carbon that caused the heat and the obligation to cut it, or about which protective spending actually shields fleets and coastal economies now.
How left and right read it
The people who fish these waters and live on these coasts absorb the damage first, and scientists now say the warming threatens marine ecosystems, fisheries and coastal communities alike. This is not bad luck. Because the hottest fortnights would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate across three of the four regions studied, and roughly 2C was added to the Mediterranean, governments owe both rapid carbon cuts and serious public protection for communities already living with heat that kills.
“Relentless heatwaves have killed tens of thousands of people and stripped plants of moisture, ruining crops and fuelling large wildfires.” — The Guardian
The families and fleets working these waters need protection they can actually afford, because the roughly 2C added to the Mediterranean and a July averaging just over 27C — the hottest on record — describe a risk that has already landed on real coastal economies. Attribution tells us what warmed. It does not tell us which spending shields the fisheries and communities scientists say are threatened, so which measures earn their place first?
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