RKI estimates 9,800 heat-related deaths in Germany between April and mid-July 2026
The Facts
- The RKI estimates 9,800 heat-related deaths in Germany for the period from early April to 19 July 2026, more than in any single full year since 2016.
- More than 5,000 of this year's estimated heat-related deaths are attributed by the RKI to the hot days in the second half of June, when temperatures near 40 degrees Celsius were recorded in many parts of Germany.
- People aged 75 and older account for the largest share of heat-related deaths; in absolute terms more women than men die, which the RKI attributes to the higher proportion of women in older age groups.
- According to the RKI, heat rarely causes death directly; most fatalities result from a combination of heat exposure and pre-existing chronic conditions.
- North Rhine-Westphalia recorded the highest state-level estimate at 2,270 heat-related deaths, followed by Baden-Württemberg with 1,870 — described by the RKI analysis as the highest figure for that state in ten years.
- Other state estimates to 19 July include 1,350 in Hesse, 1,230 in Rhineland-Palatinate, 420 in Lower Saxony (against 20 the previous year) and 30 in Bremen (against none the previous year).
- The previous highest annual total in the past decade was in 2018, though published RKI-based estimates for that year vary across reports, ranging from roughly 8,400 to about 9,000 deaths.
- The figures come from the RKI's weekly report on heat-related mortality and are statistical estimates rather than individually certified causes of death.
Context
How are 'heat-related deaths' counted if heat is rarely listed as a cause of death?
The RKI publishes estimates in a weekly report on heat-related mortality, derived statistically rather than from individual death certificates Zeitungsverlag Waib…,Spiegel Online,ZEIT ONLINE. The institute says heat seldom kills directly; in most cases death results from heat exposure combined with existing chronic illness, and in some cases from heatstroke newsORF.at,ZEIT ONLINE. Experts cited in Austria make the same point: the statistical link between temperature and death counts is clear, but attributing individual deaths to heat is not straightforward newsORF.at.
Who is most affected?
The RKI says the largest share of heat-related deaths falls in age groups from 75 years upward, and that high heat is especially dangerous for older people DIE WELT,newsORF.at,ZEIT ONLINE,DIE WELT. More women than men die in absolute terms, which the institute attributes to the higher proportion of women among the elderly DIE WELT,Focus,Lenta.ru.
How do this year's regional figures compare with previous years?
Several states report their highest estimates in a decade. Baden-Württemberg's 1,870 exceeds the 1,260 recorded by the same point in 2018 and 910 last year N-tv,ZEIT ONLINE. Hesse's 1,350 deaths equate to 21.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, against 5.6 last year and a 2018 peak of 17.2 DIE WELT,ZEIT ONLINE,N-tv. Lower Saxony's 420, by contrast, remains below its 2018 total of 720 DIE WELT,ZEIT ONLINE.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- The deaths cluster in people 75 and older with chronic conditions, and the totals are RKI model estimates rather than individually certified causes of death — neither framing disputes either point.
- Where Left and Right split
- A known, named vulnerable population owed protection now, or how far modelled estimates that swing from 20 to 420 should drive policy.
How left and right read it
An estimated 9,800 heat-related deaths from early April to 19 July already exceed any full year since 2016, with more than 5,000 in the hot days of late June. The largest share were people 75 and older, and heat seldom kills alone — it kills alongside chronic illness. Knowing this precisely whom the heat takes, we owe those residents protection matched to that knowledge.
North Rhine-Westphalia's 2,270 and Baden-Württemberg's 1,870 come from the RKI's weekly report — statistical estimates, not individually certified causes of death. Even the 2018 benchmark floats between roughly 8,400 and 9,000 depending on which report you read, and Lower Saxony's 420 against 20 a year earlier shows how sharply modelled figures swing. Precision should precede policy. Which number are we being governed by?
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