Asian LNG demand expected to recover as Middle East supply disruption eases
Business & MarketsWell-coveredThe Facts
- Industry executives expect LNG demand in China, India and Pakistan to rebound when supply conditions improve.
- The US-Iran war has disrupted LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates through the Strait of Hormuz.
- About one-fifth of global LNG supplies previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Asian spot LNG prices rose to nearly $30 per million British thermal units from around $10 before the war.
- Higher LNG prices have led some Asian users to replace gas with coal and oil.
- Shell estimates that about 36 million tonnes of Middle Eastern LNG supply has been lost this year.
- The pace of demand recovery depends on the end of supply disruption, lower prices and additional LNG availability.
Context
Why has the Strait of Hormuz disruption affected LNG buyers in Asia?
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have been unable to export most LNG through the strait, which previously carried about one-fifth of global LNG supplies. This has reduced available supply for import-dependent Asian buyers. Star Express Tribune Financial Post
Why did LNG demand fall in China, India and Pakistan?
Asian spot LNG prices climbed to nearly $30 per MMBtu from around $10 before the war, making gas less affordable for price-sensitive consumers and encouraging some fuel switching to coal and oil. India Today Star Express Tribune
What could lead LNG demand to rise again?
Executives expect demand to recover if Middle East supply disruptions end, prices ease and additional LNG supplies enter the market. TimesNow Express Tribune London South East
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
Left and right largely agree on this one.
- Where Left and Right agree
- Both frame the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint itself, not just the war, as the real vulnerability — recovery depends entirely on the war ending, prices easing, and new supply arriving.
- Where Left and Right differ in emphasis
- The human cost to Asian consumers forced back onto coal and oil, or the structural case for prioritizing chokepoint resilience over simply waiting out the war.
- Why they won’t converge
- This is a values divide over priority: whether the war's end should be treated as the fix, or whether chokepoint dependence itself is the problem worth addressing, a disagreement that survives full agreement on the same price and supply data.
How left and right read it
Energy security for people across China, India and Pakistan should not depend on how fast a distant war winds down, yet recovery is pinned to exactly that — the war ending, prices falling, and new supply arriving, the same fragility that let disruption in a chokepoint carrying a fifth of global LNG push consumers back onto coal and oil. That vulnerability, not the war alone, deserves the real attention here.
“The Trump administration is using the conference as a sales pitch for exporting more fuel, while European and Asian countries are emphasizing alternatives.” — POLITICO
Energy security should never rest on a single chokepoint that carries a fifth of the world's LNG, yet that dependence is exactly what let one war strand tens of millions of tonnes of Middle Eastern supply and send Asian prices surging toward triple their prior level. Higher prices then pushed buyers back onto coal and oil, which shows how quickly reliance on disruption-prone routes undermines energy choices. Demand will only recover once disruption ends, prices ease and additional supply becomes available, so resilience against chokepoint risk deserves priority over just waiting out the war.
The receipts — all 52 sources
Wire services (1)
Independent coverage (50)
Facts first. Then every angle.
The day’s biggest stories in one short brief — the facts everyone agrees on, then the competing values behind the headlines. Free in your inbox.