IEA says global coal-fired power generation is set to rise in 2026 as gas market disruptions lift costs
The Facts
- The IEA forecasts that global electricity generation from coal will rise by 1.4% in 2026 after remaining broadly stable in 2025.
- The IEA says disruptions in natural gas supply and higher gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict are contributing to greater coal use for power generation in some regions.
- The report indicates that global electricity demand is expected to grow 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, faster than the 3% growth recorded in 2025.
- The IEA projects renewable electricity generation to keep expanding and to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation in 2026.
- The agency expects global electricity consumption to reach about 30,700 terawatt-hours in 2027, up from 28,600 terawatt-hours in 2025.
- The IEA says rising electricity demand is being driven by industry, air conditioning and other appliances, electric vehicles, and data centers.
- The increase in coal-fired generation has implications for emissions: the IEA expects CO2 emissions from electricity generation to rise by about 1% in 2026.
- What remains unresolved is whether rapid renewable growth will be enough to offset the near-term increase in coal use and emissions as electricity demand continues to rise.
Context
Why is coal use rising if renewables are still growing?
The IEA says both trends are happening at once: renewable generation is expanding quickly, but disruptions to gas supply and higher gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict have made coal more competitive for some power systems in the near term BFMTV,Notícias ao Minuto,Le Telegramme.
What is pushing global electricity demand higher?
According to the IEA, demand growth is being driven by industrial activity, wider use of air conditioning and appliances, electric vehicles, and data centers SAPO,Electrek,Asian News Internat….
Does the report say renewables are losing ground to coal overall?
No. The IEA says renewables are still on track to become the largest global source of electricity generation in 2026, even though coal-fired generation is also expected to increase this year SAPO,Electrek,Jornal de Negócios.
Where Left and Right agree, and where they split
- Where Left and Right agree
- Rising electricity demand and gas-market disruptions are pushing some regions back toward coal even as renewables keep expanding and are projected to overtake it.
- Where Left and Right split
- Whether the story is about an energy transition still too vulnerable to near-term shocks, or about securing reliable, affordable power for fast-rising demand.
How left and right read it
A 1.4% rise in coal-fired electricity in 2026, alongside about a 1% increase in power-sector CO2 emissions, is a reminder that energy systems still leave the public exposed when fuel disruptions and price spikes hit. Renewable generation is still set to overtake coal, but with electricity demand climbing, the real question is whether the transition is being built fast enough to keep near-term shocks from driving a dirtier fallback.
Coal-fired electricity is set to rise 1.4% in 2026 as disruptions in natural gas supply and higher gas prices tied to the Middle East conflict push some regions back toward coal. That is a hard reminder that soaring demand from industry, appliances, electric vehicles, and data centers still requires reliable, affordable power. Build an energy mix that can carry real demand without depending on fragile fuel markets.
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